Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Global Easing In Monetary Policy

In a surprise decision, central banks in the industrialized world announced a coordinated half percentage point easing in monetary policy this morning. The message from all of the central banks was loud and clear: the prospects of significantly slower global growth mean that global infaltions risks are dead.

The coordination and the rate change between regular meetings also infer the urgency of action and the need to restore confidence to the global financial system in the wake of unprecendented turmoil.

The common theme in the wording of the central banks statements was that "inflation expectations are diminishing ... the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth and thus has diminished further upside risk to price stability." The Fed notes that 'economic activity has slowed markedly...the intensification of the financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending partly by reducing the abililty to obtain credit.

It's apparent that an easing in monetary policy was needed on a global basis. Expectation is that further rate cuts of a further 50 basis points are in the pipeline and will be announced at the Fed and the Bank of Canada upcoming rate announcements on October 29 and 21 respectively.

Warmly,

Mary Wozny

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Opportunities In An "Economic Pearl Harbor"

In Omaha, Neb. today, billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the nation has been hit with an “economic Pearl Harbor,” and the government must respond quickly.

Mr. Buffett talked about the nation's ongoing financial woes in an appearance on the The Charlie Rose Show that aired Wednesday night on PBS stations.

“This really is an economic Pearl Harbor,” Mr. Buffett said. “That sounds melodramatic, but I've never used that phrase before. And this really is one.”

He went on to state that in his opinion the nation's economic problems are already starting to be felt by furniture and jewellery stores such as the ones owned by his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

The billionaire predicts that the rest of the Main Street economy will start to have problems if the government's financial bailout plan doesn't pass Congress soon.

“In my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful economically as they are now,” the 78-year-old Mr. Buffett said.

The fear in the marketplace has allowed Mr. Buffett to make several sizable investments over the past month in proven companies that needed cash quickly. And Berkshire, which had $31.2-billion (U.S.) cash on hand at the end of June, was ready to invest because, as Mr. Buffett says, he always tries to be greedy when others are fearful.

Following Berkshire's purchase last week of $5-billion in preferred Goldman Sachs shares, Berkshire announced it would be purchasing $3-billion of preferred share of General Electric Co.
Mr. Buffett said he was approached about the GE investment Wednesday morning by someone at Goldman. And Mr. Buffett quickly decided to invest in GE because he's familiar with the company and confident in its long-term prospects.

This goes to show us that capitalism is alive and well in the US. Prudent investors looking for long term real estate investments can capitalize on todays markets and build their portfolios for the future. As crazy as it may sound to some, now is the time to be purchasing discounted real estate using long term strategies for buy and hold.

Mortgage rates are on the rise again making now the time to lock in your investment financing at attractive rates.

Warmly,

Mary Wozny

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Canadian Housing Market - Boom or Bust?

In a talk with the Ontario Economic Council, U.S. economist Robert Shiller states Canada's housing market has been following a similar boom-and-bust path as that seen in the United States, but fundamental differences between the two leave Canada less exposed to the U.S.-style fallout.

“There have been booms in some Canadian cities – Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver – but maybe [prices] are weakening or actually falling, at least in those boom cities,” he said, noting that the pattern somewhat resembles that seen in many U.S. and foreign markets over the past few years.

He does suggest that the relatively small use of subprime mortgages in Canada should mean the damage in this country will be much less severe.

“There's a difference. We [in the United States] have had a subprime revolution that I don't think took place, to the same extent at least, in Canada.”

Mr. Shiller said a bailout of the seized-up banking sector is an essential first step to cleaning up the mess left by the U.S. housing bubble, but it needs to be followed by financial innovations to support troubled home owners.

“Once we fix the leaky roof, we need to take a look at the foundations,” Mr. Shiller told the summit.

The professor – author of the book Irrational Exuberance and recognized expert on asset bubbles and the housing market – said U.S. legislators must act on the liquidity crunch that is gripping the banks in order to avoid a much longer-lasting economic stagnation. He believes Congress must reverse its decision to reject the proposed $700-billion (U.S.) troubled asset relief program (TARP), despite public anger over what many view as a handout to rich and reckless investors.

“The TARP program is really essential to enact,” he said. “The general public doesn't appreciate the severity of the crisis, and the threat it poses to their jobs and livelihood.”

He further noted that the research conducted on the Great Depression by none other than Ben Bernanke – now the head of the Federal Reserve Board and one of TARP's key architects – has found that a tied-up, illiquid banking system was a major contributor to the extraordinary depth and length of the Depression.

“When you don't have a banking system, you can't do business,” he said.

“We can't think that we want to teach people a lesson,” he said, suggesting that the blame for the housing bubble extends beyond bankers, lawmakers and regulators.

“It was erroneous thinking,” he said, blaming the bubble on a mass cultural shift in its mentality toward investing and housing.

“We've become more an investor culture – make a quick buck,” he said. “People got themselves convinced that home prices could only go up.”

Mr. Shiller's new book, Subprime Solution, came out Sept. 1 – just before a month of ground-shaking upheavals on Wall Street. The book's longer-term prescription for the U.S. housing market would involve help for distressed homeowners as well as major changes to the way the residential mortgage market functions.

“Financial innovation only comes in times of crisis,” he said. “We need to think of our financial institutions in a constructive and innovative way.”

His ideas include a permanent and ongoing system for automatically adjusting mortgage payment terms in times of economic shocks; government-subsidized independent financial advisory services; and new risk-management products that would allow homeowners to manage their long-term risk exposure to home prices, employment income and economic growth.
“In my book, I emphasize bailing out homeowners because they are the ones being hurt most,” he said. “But first, we have to deal with the banking system.”

Meanwhile, former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge joined the chorus of experts who believe U.S. legislators must solve their impasse over a rescue package for the troubled banking sector.

“The U.S. banking system needs to be recapitalized. Ben [Bernanke] understands that as well as anyone,” he said.

“How that is going to be done is another question.” Mr. Dodge made the statement during a break at the summit, a three-day Ontario Chamber of Commerce event that he is co-chairing.

Warmly,

Mary Wozny

Friday, September 26, 2008

Credit Crunch Fallout Raises Mortgage Rates

As reported in today's Toronto Star, Canadians received more proof yesterday of the global credit crunch hitting home after this country's biggest banks began hiking their residential mortgage rates in an effort to recoup higher funding costs from their customers.

The interest rate increases follow days of forewarning by financial experts, who predicted Canadians would feel the pinch of the financial crisis through higher borrowing costs on consumer loans.

TD Canada Trust was the first of the big domestic lenders to increase mortgage rates both on its' fixed rate mortgage product and its' variable interest rate mortgage. TD Canada Trust claims that the increase now is reflective because the bank has been holding on, that all of the industry in fact has been holding on, trying not to pass the increased costs to the customers, but says that it can't do this anymore.

Banks are grappling with higher funding costs in the wake of last year's subprime mortgage market meltdown in the United States. With the ensuing global credit crunch now in its second year, banks remain wary of lending to each other. The bank says that all mortgages, variable rates mortgages in particular, have become money losers because of the cost of funds due to all the challenges that are going on in the world right now.

Another factor affecting rates is the bond market which has been in a flux ever since the United States announced a $700 billion US bailout plan for American banks. The interest rates on mortgages and other short-term borrowing are set based on the price of bonds. With lower demand for bonds, and fears of inflation, rates have to rise to lure investors.

Warmly,

Mary Wozny

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Canadian Housing Starts Jump

As reported in today's Globe and Mail, housing starts rebounded sharply in August, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate jumping to 211,000 units from 186,500 in July, far outstripping Bay Street forecasts of about 190,000 states Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

Ontario accounted for the entire gain, with starts in the country's most populous province climbing 81 per cent to 86,500 from 47,800 in July, but falling in every other region, CMHC said. The agency attributed the rebound mostly to multiple-unit starts, with those in urban areas jumping 25.2 per cent to 114,700 units, after falling 20.2 per cent in July.

“After a brief pause in July, the volatile multiple segment bounced back to a level of activity that is more consistent with our forecast for this year,” CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said in a news release. “Most of the volatility in housing starts over the last three months reflected swings in multiple starts in Ontario.”

The July drop marked just the fourth time in 5-1/2 years that the seasonally adjusted annual rate had fallen below 200,000 units.

The unexpectedly strong rebound came a day after figures from Statistics Canada for the value of building permits issued in July also surpassed expectations, rising by 1.8 per cent to $6.4-billion, instead of the 1 per cent forecast by economists, following a 5.3 per cent drop in June.
Still, the CMHC's start figures can be a misleading guide to the state of the housing market and the economy at large, because they often represent investment decisions and sales made by builders and developers a year or two before construction begins.

This does not necessarily mean that housing remains healthy, it should be taken for what it is – a snapback from a previously large decline. The Canadian housing market does have some headwinds that will bring down activity in the next couple of quarters.

This optimism needs to be tempered by the fact that strength in the August housing numbers was narrowly based in the volatile multiples component in Ontario. As well, the earlier deterioration in affordability will likely reassert a downward trend in the starts data going forward for the remainder of this year and through 2009.

However, the pace of decline is modest compared to the drop that has occurred in the U.S., where the 965,000-unit level of starts represents less than half of the recent annual peak in 2005 of 2.073 million units.

CMHC said that nationally, starts of single-family dwellings rose 2 per cent to 71,200 units in August.

Warmly,

Mary Wozny

Monday, August 25, 2008

Urgent Plea for Your Help!

First, my apologies as it's been quite a while since I've written to you. It's always interesting the challenges that life tosses our way. As a result, I am coming to you with a plea and asking for your help

.Many of you know that the past few years have been a time of great challenge and change for me. They've also been years of exceptional personal and spiritual growth as well, and honestly, looking back, I wouldn't change any of it. (well ok, maybe a few!!!) I believe there are always lessons we need to learn from these challenges so that we can move to a higher spiritual level. I certainly have and am thankful for the experience.

I was very blessed to have a partner come into my life a year ago who brought me great joy and peace. We were joined together at a 'soulular' level with an incredibly strong and unbreakable connection and I loved him dearly.

Life had different plans for us though. In April he was diagnosed with cancer and after further testing and much consultation with oncologists, it was determined he should have surgery and then chemo. Arrangements were made and I took him in on July 10th for his surgery.

Well by now you may realize that I've been writing in the past tense here .... it didn't go well. Once opened up the cancer was found everywhere. The doctors did what they could but the prognosis was bad. The worst was yet to come when in the recovery room he 'bled out' and was rushed back into surgery to stop the bleeding and try and keep him alive.Here's what I want you all to really recognize!

Suddenly he had lost his entire bodys' volume of blood. Bag after bag of blood was given to him. That night he had 14 units of whole blood alone, along with many bags of frozen plasma and platelets. By the end, he had 21 units of blood given to him. I watched it flow into him along with other fluids to try and bring his pressure up and replace what he was losing, to sustain him another minute, another hour, another day.

He fought valiantly and courageously for 3 1/2 weeks until his body gave up and nothing more could be done for him. I held him as he passed and closed his eyes when it was over. I was honoured to have been by his side and to help him through this incredibly difficult time. Who knows, I suspect this is the reason the universe brought us together. No one should be alone at times like this and had we not met, he would have been. I'm so very blessed and grateful to have shared this time with him although it was so short.

Our lives can change in a single instant.

My plea to you is this - PLEASE GIVE BLOOD. Give the life saving blood that is in such critical demand all over the world. Your local communities will offer blood donor clinics. You can check these out by visiting the American Red Cross in the United States at http://www.redcross.org/donate/give/ or calling 1-800-GIVE-LIFE (1-800-448-3543). In Canada contact the Canadian Blood Services, http://www.bloodservices.ca/ or by calling 1-888-2-DONATE.It's always interesting to notice how serendipitous life can be.

One and a half weeks after I lost my partner, I attended my weekly Rotary meeting. Amazingly, the speaker that day was from Canadian Blood Services with a plea for my Rotary Clubs' help in giving blood and passing the message along.

How timely! I stood up and shared with my fellow Rotarians how true in fact this plea was as I had just lived this. We never know when or how our lives may be touched by someone requiring this life saving fluid. It's established fact that we all will be touched by cancer in our lives, whether ourselves or someone in our family or close to us. Chemo patients often require blood and blood products to help them through their treatment.

Now, I can't give blood due to my own health challenges, but I realized after listening to this speaker that I could give time and I could ask you for your help. I immediately volunteered my time to assist in blood donation clinics or speaking on their behalf and I am spreading the word by asking you.

So there are no excuses and I ask you again, please give blood or give time for this very worthy cause. Who knows, one day you or a loved one could be the patient lying in a hospital bed receiving this precious gift of life. The life you save could be your own!

I thank you all for your support and for giving blood. And I thank everyone who donated the blood that was so vital in keeping my Brian alive for those few short weeks. I carry your kindness in my heart always.

I will be back in touch soon and ask for your patience as I move through the grieving process.

My best wishes and thanks to you all.

Mary Wozny

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Canadian Government Revamps Mortgage Rules!

Important new rules from Ottawa today regarding mortgage regulations and guidelines!

In an effort to avoid the sort of housing meltdown that has damaged the U. S. economy, the Finance Department today said it was reducing the maximum amortization period for new government-backed mortgages to 35 years from the previously allowed 40 years.

The government states that Canada's housing and mortgage markets are performing better than the United States and the new ruling which will come in effect October 15th, 2008 will assure the continuation of this. They state that the historically prudent and cautious approach taken by the Canadian financial institutions to morgage lending, combined with a sound supervisory regime, has allowed Canada to maintain strong and secure housing and mortgage markets.

New regulations will require a consistent credit score for mortgages the government backs along with a minimum level of loan documentation standards to evidence property values and borrowers' income. The final change will be a capping at 45% on a borrower's debt-service ratio.

These changes will take force on October 15th, 2008 and means that people looking to purchase or refinance their home with a high ratio mortgage need to act quickly!

Contact Mary Wozny, 877-446-9791 or email mwozny@mortgagealliance.com today to secure your financing before these new rules come into effect.

Warmly,
Mary Wozny